An interview with Matthew Lidbetter, president of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of Realtors (SGBAR)
Note: The Western District of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of Realtors includes Blue Mountains, Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford and Wasaga Beach.
On The Bay: How would you describe the current resale home market in the Western District of Southern Georgian Bay, and why?
Matthew Lidbetter: At the beginning of 2020, most industry experts predicted steady growth; however, with the onset of the pandemic, there were key drivers in the rapid escalation in demand and therefore price. Buyers from urban areas have been looking for space, not only larger houses than they have typically been used to, but also land. It has become clear that with the ability to work from home, the home office and high-speed internet have become critical. It is also apparent that many buyers are moving their principal residence from the GTA, Kitchener-Waterloo, etc. to the Southern Georgian Bay area, where they can enjoy a four-season lifestyle with a work life balance.
Retirement is also calling – with people’s plans to move up north being accelerated, where before the pandemic they had a five to 10-year plan, this seems to have become a more immediate desire.
OTB: It clearly appears to be a seller’s market in Southern Georgian Bay. How are these low inventory levels affecting home prices in our area?
ML: As always, it is supply and demand; with the low inventory levels, sellers are achieving prices that pre-pandemic may not have been considered possible.
OTB: How different are the individual real estate markets across the Western Region? For example, between Collingwood and The Blue Mountains, Meaford, Wasaga Beach, etc.?
ML: Markets within the Western Region are all playing out very similarly – record or near-record sales activity, very limited supply, and record price levels.
The dwindling number of active listings continues to raise concerns for local markets within the Western Region. Available supply across all local markets is at historical lows and as of the end of 2020 the number of active listings for the overall Western Region dropped below 200 for the first time on record going back more than 25 years.
That said, the overall Western Region still managed to post the highest MLS home sales ever in a year in 2020. However, supply shortages will remain the biggest challenge to prospective homebuyers this year.
OTB: How much has the price of a single-family home changed in the Western Region since 2010? What is the most expensive and the least expensive community in Southern Georgian Bay and what are the median (not average) residential sale prices in those communities?
ML: The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends and levels far more accurately than averages or medians. Below is a table showing MLS Single Family Benchmark Prices for the major areas in the Western Region at the end of last year and how the most recent data compares to the same period in 2010 for single family homes.
| Area | December 2010 | December 2020 | % change |
| Blue Mountains | $332,900 | $780,000 | 134.3 |
| Clearview | $235,000 | $575,200 | 144.8 |
| Collingwood | $227,100 | $590,400 | 160.0 |
| Grey Highlands | $259,500 | $655,100 | 152.4 |
| Meaford | $215,900 | $508,000 | 135.3 |
| Wasaga Beach | $227,900 | $563,400 | 147.2 |
While single family and townhouse properties both saw price trends accelerate through 2020, apartment units saw prices stay relatively stable throughout the year.
Prices for single-family homes have more than doubled in all areas within the Western Region over the past 10 years, although there are variations among price levels between the areas.
Drilling down even further, the least and most expensive communities for single family homes within these areas in the Western Region are (at the time of this writing) the Town of Meaford ($438,900) and Georgian Peaks ($952,600), respectively.
On a side note, there has been a general divergence in trends between prices for ground-level properties and apartments. While single family and townhouse properties both saw price trends accelerate through 2020, apartment units saw prices stay relatively stable throughout the year. However, with properties of all types in very short supply, we wouldn’t be surprised to see apartment prices beginning to pick up more as well.
While the use of benchmark price information can be useful in establishing trends when applied over time, the SGBAR cautions that a benchmark price does not indicate the actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a local realtor.
OTB: By 2024, it is expected that one in five Canadians will be over the age of 65. Do you think this demographic trend impacts the Southern Georgian Bay real estate market?
ML: Given the numbers of retirees we are seeing moving into the area, we will continue to see upward pressure on pricing, together with an increasing demand for single-level and community living.
OTB: We know you don’t have a crystal ball, but what do you forecast for the future of the local real estate market in the near future (next year or so) and for the longer term of, say, five years?
ML: That is a tough one and I may be proved wrong, but, in my opinion, with the current low inventory levels we may see a reduction in sales volume; however, this will be contrasted by continuing upward pressure on pricing and pent-up demand in the market. ❧
